She sees foreign investors stepping in to fill the void. Still, Angelakis isn’t concerned about this prospect. In fact, that’s how all bubbles and manias eventually end. The more home prices rise, the less affordable they become, and that eventually crashes prices, as the market runs out of buyers. Meanwhile, there’s the affordability issue - the ratio of home prices to disposable income. Homes are “high ticket” items on people’s buying list, and therefore, they are the first ones to be taken off the list when the economy slows down. While the end of cheap money could cool demand for hot properties, so is the prospect of intensification of trade tensions with the US, which could slow down the Chinese economy overall.
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In fact, she sees government’s tight restrictions on lending as having already affected local investors’ ability to finance or refinance their investments. “On the demand side, Chinese regional governments have used real estate development to meet economic development targets.”Įvi Angelakis, the CEO and Founder of Golden Key Realty in Long Island City, NY, agrees. “To that end the government has traditionally instructed Chinese banks to provide credit to Chinese property developers,” continuous Bauman. That’s an ambitious goal financed from state-owned banks. “It’s shaped by monetary and credit policies manipulated by the Chinese government to achieve specific policy goals.One such goal has been to promote domestic economic sectors through property development and construction - a sector ideally placed to create domestic jobs and investments.”
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“The Chinese property market is not a free “demand and supply” market,” explains Bauman. “The Chinese real estate bubble is of the second variety, and due to state policy – which can be reversed at any time.”Īny time the cheap credit goes away, that is.
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“In that case, prices will continue to rise as long as credit is available,” adds Bauman. What does that mean for the future of real estate prices?